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Saturday 4th May 2024 saw the conclusion of the EFL Championship season, and once again one of the most entertaining leagues in the world didn’t fail to deliver. From burner accounts on Twitter (looking at you, Mr Beale) to rabona-lob goals (now looking at you, Mr Philogene), there was never a dull moment that meant the eyes of English football couldn’t look away.
In January, I attempted to predict the final order of the top 10 in the Championship, and I’m glad to announce that these predictions were generally successful (my definition of success in predictions though is getting one correct). Today, before the new season begins and the magic of the Championship is once again displayed to the footballing world, I’d like to reflect on my predictions and assess what went well for some teams- and what didn’t as much for other teams.
Let’s begin with my first correct (and not my last, humble brag) prediction:
1st Place- Leicester City
League position: 1st
My prediction: 1st
Despite loosing to the likes of Blackburn, Millwall, Bristol City and QPR in the later half of the season, Leicester City were promoted back to the Premier League not only in the automatic spots, but as league champions on 97 points.
Despite having very healthy point margins between themselves and second place throughout the season- in January, they had a 12-point lead over second place at one stage- it did come down to the wire for who would take first place, as it was settled on the penultimate match day of the season after beating Preston 3-0.
The Foxes came down as favourites to win the championship and with one of the healthiest budgets in the league, investing in such talent as Stephy Mavididi, Harry Winks, Conor Coady and Issahaku Fatawu. These signings- 9 in total, though Casedei left in January to return to parent club Chelsea- were generally successful and contributed to Leicester’s possession-based, patient and technical built up implemented by new coach and student of Pep Guardiola, Enzo Maresca.
Despite his critics throughout the second half of the season, where his brand of football was branded as slow and ineffective, his first English head coaching role following previous assistant roles at Manchester City and West Ham saw a triumphant return to the Premier League and quarter finals in the FA Cup. It certainly wasn’t a bad season for the Italian, as it has earned him a move to Chelsea following Mauricio Pochettino’s departure from East London.
2nd Place- Ipswich Town
League position: 2nd
My prediction: 2nd
Back to back, baby! (For the tractor boys, and for my predictions. Don’t worry, my humble pie is coming soon.)
I truly don’t believe it is an understatement to say that what Kieran McKenna and his Ipswich Town squad achieved this season was one of if not the greatest achievement in championship history. When McKenna came into his role at the club, Ipswich were 11th in League One in December 2021. After clutching promotion in May 2023, not only has McKenna been able to guide Ipswich to the top half of the league, but all the way back to the Premier League for the first time since 2002.
There were multiple high points in the season, such as the unexpected 4-3 thrillers against Rotherham United and Blackburn Rovers or the thrilling 3-2 victory against Southampton, but none quite brought euphoria to Portman Road like the final game did against Huddersfield, where goals from Wes Burns and star loanee from Chelsea Omari Hutchinson clutched promotion for the tractor boys.
It was a season of valuable minutes but arguably more important moments for young Jamaican winger Omari Hutchinson, who initially joined on loan from Chelsea before recently completing his permanent move to the club. Hutchinson put 50 appearances to his name, something he will be hoping to add to as he hopes to continue with the East-Anglian outfit in the Premier League next season. With 16 goals and assists (combined) in the 23/24 season, it was a strong season all round for Hutchinson who displayed his intelligent and fast-paced play on the wing or in the 10.
3rd Place- Leeds United
League position: 3rd
My prediction: 3rd
In the end, automatic promotion was just a step too far for this Farke-led Leeds side.
Despite an explosive attack with the likes of Crysencio Summervile and Georginio Rutter to highlight but a few of their attacking talents, and a generally solid defence with Welshmen Ethan Ampadu and Joe Rodon at the heart of it, Leeds ultimately lacked the spirit and instinct to gain an automatic promotion spot this season.
In their final 6 games, Leeds won 1, drew 1 and lost 4, falling to sides like QPR and Blackburn Rovers on the final day of the season. This means that should Leeds return to the Premier League first time of asking, not only will they have to turn this form around incredibly quickly, but will have to take down 2 of 3 teams in objectively better form than them in Norwich (who they will play in the semi-finals), and West Brom or Southampton in the other semi final.
Should Leeds fail to get promoted, despite the 90 points they finished with this season (the only team to ever do this in the championship without getting promoted automatically), this will be a difficult feat to match as they will find it difficult to retain star players like Summervile and Rutter, with starlets like Archie Gray already completing moves away from the club for the Premier League as he joined Tottenham for 40 million pounds.
4th Place- Southampton
League position: 4th
My prediction: 4th
After achieving promotion against Leeds at Wembley on May 26th, Southampton can be very pleased with their season back in the Championship for the first time since 2012, as a singular goal from Adam Armstrong sealed their promotion back to the Premier League.
Under the management of former Swansea City manager Russell Martin, the Saints had many ups-and-downs throughout the season, displayed no better than their most recent run of form. After Leicester lost to Millwall and Leeds and Ipswich both drew 0-0, a victory at St Mary’s against Coventry meant Southampton were able to mount a late case for automatic promotion. The following matchday, where Leicester lost again, Leeds lost to Blackburn and Ipswich again drew against Middlesborough, another Southampton win saw them move closer and closer to an automatic spot.
However, losses against Cardiff City, Stoke and a thumping at the hands of Leicester City meant despite a win on the final day against Leeds, 4th place was confirmed for Southampton.
With stand out players like Adam Armstrong, who’s quickly gained a reputation for being a prolific Championship striker as a result of 34 goals and assists this season, which is backed up by 33 goals and assists for Blackburn in 20/21 and 22 goals and assists again for Blackburn in 19/20. Consistent, intelligent, and able to not only act as a clinical, direct striker but also as a player who can link play between himself and other wingers, Armstrong is a true maverick of the Championship and will be keen to improve on his goal tally from his last Premier League season in the 2022/23 campaign, where despite making 30 appearances only netted twice.
5th Place- West Brom
League position: 5th
My prediction: 6th
Just short of the mark here in my predictions for West Brom here, who have gone to a new level under the tactical genius of Carlos Corberan. After barely missing out on play-offs last year following a final day defeat to Swansea last season, there were no slip-ups this time as the final day saw rejoice at the Hawthorns following a reassuring victory against Preston North End.
Corberan’s brand of football continues to develop and remains ever popular in the West Midlands, with high pressing and composed playing out from the back orchestrated by Cedric Kipre helping propel West Brom to the possibility of a return to the Premier League following a 3 year hiatus.
A key aspect to West Brom’s season has also come from the breakthrough of young winger Tom Fellows, who finished this season with 9 goals and assists in 39 games for the baggies. On loan at Crawley Town last season, Fellows has solidified himself in the West Brom starting XI after penning a 3-and-a-half year contract extension in January. Combining exciting play with composure in the final third, Fellows was rewarded for his breakout season with West Brom’s ‘Marc Darcy Young Player of the Season’ trophy and will surely play a key role for the baggies in their upcoming promotion push.
6th Place- Norwich City
League position: 6th
My prediction: 9th
I’ll have to throw my hands up, I was miles off the pace here. Norwich were damn good in the second half of the season, and while it can be disputed that this was due to underperformance of a certain team from East Yorkshire, I think that downplays Norwich’s achievements after the January transfer window.
Despite ultimately being dismantled by a much better Leeds side eventually in the playoffs, Norwich have played some tremendous attacking football this season, with players like Jonathan Rowe breaking through and forwards like American Josh Sargent providing the goods up front, as the former Werder Bremen man provided 18 goals and assists last season.
The clear stand out at Carrow Road this season however was Brazilian midfielder Gabriel Sara. Simply sensational, Sara has ran the midfield for Norwich- nay, he’s ran Norwich’s whole season- in every game, and catches your eye whenever you see Norwich. Wether it’s an inch-perfect pass or a nutmeg as he glides past opposition players, Sara will pass the eye test for any curious fans interested in watching him next season. As for the numbers, he passes on those levels too, with 27 goals and assists in 53 games last season (14 of these were goals from 6.4 xG), with an impressive 6.67 progressive passes per 90 last season.
Reports in Italy suggest Atalanta and Galatasaray now join the bidding for him, and should Teun Koopmeiners depart Atalanta this summer, Sara seems like a wise replacement to fill his void in Bergamo.
7th Place- Hull City
League position: 7th
My prediction: 5th
What the hell happened at Hull? Though the strength of a 90-points Leeds side and eventual promotion winners Southampton may have been too much for the Tigers to bare in the play-offs, there seemed to be a lot of conviction in Championship circles around Hull and their position in the play-offs come May.
In January, I spoke very highly of their business in January, as Liverpool talent Fabio Carvalho joined following an unsuccessful loan at RB Leipzig where one Xavi Simons limited his playtime, as well as Ivan Pandur, experienced striker Billy Sharp, Anass Zaroury from Burnley, Ryan Giles from Luton Town and Abdulkadir Omur from Trabzonspor. The acquisitions of Carvalho, Zaroury and Giles in particular made them a clear candidate in my head to make the top 6, but clearly this was just a step too far for Liam Rosenior’s side.
In the end, the signings of this window were a bit of a mixed bag, as despite Carvalho flourishing back in the championship with 11 goals and assists in 20 games, the likes of Zaroury, Pandur and Sharp failed to make an impact (even though Sharp’s shortcomings can easily be excused by the performances of Noah Ohio, who joined on loan in January)
Hull are now on the brink of a transitional season, as following their sacking of Liam Rosenior (who took over at Strasbourg, replacing Patrick Vieira), will need to replace the likes of standout defender Jacob Greaves, Tyler Morton who has returned to Liverpool following his loan stint alongside Fabio Carvalho, and star winger Jaden Philogene who has made a permanent switch back to Aston Villa, his boyhood club.
8th place- Middlesborough
League position- 8th
My prediction- outside top 10
In January, I predicted how the top 10 in the Championship would finish, and my predictions failed to include the Northern outfit. A bit of a rotter on my part, even though at the time they were outside the top 10.
There was a clear improvement in the second half of Boro’s season clearly, as Michael Carrick’s men finished just 4 points outside the play-offs. Despite loosing pacy attacker Morgan Rogers to Aston Villa in January, the offensive play remained decent for Middlesborough, with Ivorian forward Emmanuel Latte Lath providing 16 goals (scoring on the final day against Watford, as pictured above) and Finn Azaz (signed in January from Aston Villa) settling in nicely providing 9 goals and assists in 20 games in the second half of the season.
Defensive ramifications in Luke Ayling and Luke Thomas (anyone else spot the theme there?) also added more stability at the back for Middlesborough, a defence led by young talent Rav Van Den Berg. Brother of Liverpool youngster Sepp Van Den Berg, both brothers have had great seasons at their respective clubs, with Rav achieving an 88.8% pass accuracy rate, 25 blocks and 41 interceptions. His physicality (being 6 foot 3) paired with his intelligence could make for a top defender in many years from now.
9th Place- Coventry City
League position- 9th
My prediction- 8th
Despite a rough start to the season on the pitch and off it, an incredible FA Cup run that took the sky blues all the way to Wembley may mean that ultimately the 2023/24 campaign will be looked upon very fondly in many years to come for Coventry supporters.
The opening 2 months of the season saw 2 wins in 10 games, as the losses of the likes of Gustavo Hamer and Viktor Gyokeres seemed to take their toll, as new mega money replacement Ellis Simms failed to get back to the pace of the championship with the reliance on him and his form remaining high.
Simms would net twice against QPR at the end of September, a brace that seemed to announce his late entry into the golden boot race in the Championship for the season. However, Simms would not net again in 2023 until he scored against Swansea on December 29th against Swansea. This seemed to have rekindled a spark in Simms, as in 2024 he went on to provide 20 goals and assists, finishing on 23 goals and assists in 53 games for Coventry.
Other than Simms, Coventry formed quite a right hand side, as dutch full back Milan van Ewijk formed a formidable partnership with American Haji Wright who provided 22 goals and assists in the championship as well as memories at Molineux to last Coventry fans a lifetime.
10th- Preston North End
League position: 10th
My prediction: not in top 10
Despite 6 losses in their last 10, PNE were able to achieve their highest league finish in 6 years, after they narrowly finished 7th in 2018 behind a Gary Rowett-led Derby side. What a strange time that was for football.
Despite a limp end to the season with losses against the likes of QPR and eventually relegated Birmingham City, Preston did enough in the end to gain a respectable 10h place finish under Ryan Lowe, an improvement on their 12th place finish last season which was Lowe’s first full season with the club following his appointment from Plymouth Argyle.
Lowe is known for his offensive tactics, stating in an interview with The Guardian previously that he wants to instil a winning mentality in his teams by outscoring the teams they are playing. However, this was not always on display at Deep Dale this season, as teams such as Swansea, Watford, Blackburn Rovers and his former side Plymouth Argyle outscoring them in the league. For them to remain in the mid-table mix next season and avoid any relegation scares, offensive reinforcements may be needed this summer.
As for the side I predicted to finish 10th, Watford, a very poor second half of the season saw the Hornets finish 15th, with little to write home about now all is said and done. One man who deserves plaudits from this Watford side however is Yaser Asprilla, who provided life and soul to Vicarage Road when he entered the pitch in yellow and black. Signed as a mere 3 million euro investment in summer 2022, Asprilla has now established himself as Watford’s shining light as they will face a tough battle to keep him at the club this summer after an impressive season for the Columbian.
So there we have it. 10 predictions, 4 correct, and honestly I’ll take that. Maybe by Premier League predictions were better…? Stay tuned.
